Scoring First: How much does the first goal matter in the Stanley Cup Finals?

FLORIDA PANTHERS/ X

Leon Draisaitl of the Edmonton Oilers, opened the scoring only 1:06 into the first period of the Stanley Cup Finals. The man who opened the scoring of the Stanley Cups Final was also the overtime hero, stealing game 1, and taking a 1-0 series lead for the Oilers. 

This opening win was the only time the Oilers led the series despite opening the scoring. Florida came back next game to tie the series, they then won again to take a 2-1 series lead. The Panthers never looked back, eventually going on to win the series 4-2, securing the Stanley Cup in back-to-back years.

So does the opening goal matter? Is it a good predictor of who will win the coveted Stanley Cup? Well, taking a look at the past decade, your chances of winning the Stanley Cup appear to be higher if you open the scoring in the series, but diving deeper into the patterns, it was in Florida’s favour to win the 2025 Stanley Cup, even though the Oilers scored first.

Let's take a look at some of the past Stanley Cup Finals to break down the advantage of scoring first. 

2016

Starting in 2016, Bryan Rust opened the scoring for the Pittsburgh Penguins and they went on to win the Stanley Cup against the San Jose Sharks.

The team who opened the scoring won the Stanley Cup.

2017

In 2017, the Penguins were back in the Stanley Cup Finals. This year, the Penguins opened the scoring again through Evgeni Malkin. The Penguins went on to win the Stanley Cup in back-to-back years (remember this, back-to-backs becomes another fun fact later).

The team who opened the scoring won the Stanley Cup.

2018

In 2018, the Penguins were not in the Finals to go for threepeat. The two teams there were: the Vegas Golden Knights and the Washington Capitals. Colin Miller from the Golden Knights opened the scoring, but the Capitals went on to win the Stanley Cup, their first in franchise history.

The team who opened the scoring did not win the Stanley Cup.

2019

In January of 2019, the St. Louis Blues were last in the NHL standings, but miraculously turned their season around and found themselves in the 2019 Stanley Cup Finals.

Brayden Schenn, now captain of the team, continued the Blues turn-around season, opening the scoring against the Boston Bruins. Helping lead the team to win the Stanley Cup.

The team who opened the scoring won the Stanley Cup.

2020

The matchup for the 2020 Stanley Cup Final was between the Dallas Stars and the Tampa Bay Lightning. Joel Hanley from the Stars struck first, but the Lightning won the Stanley Cup.

The team who opened the scoring did not win the Stanley Cup.

2021

The Lightning were back in the Stanley Cup Final aiming to win in back-to-back years. This time, the Lightning opened the scoring with a goal from Erik Cernak and went on to win their second consecutive Stanley Cup.

The team who opened the scoring won the Stanley Cup.

2022

For the third year in a row, the Lightning were in the Stanley Cup Final, facing, once again, a new opponent. This year it was the Colorado Avalanche. 

The Avalanche captain, Gabriel Landeskog, was the first to get on the scoreboard, showing the way for his team to shut down the Lightning's threepeat attempt and win the Stanley Cup.

The team who opened the scoring won the Stanley Cup.

2023

The 2023 Stanley Cup Final had the Panthers and Golden Knights facing off, neither of which had ever won the Cup, so viewers would see a new champion crowned.

Eric Staal of the Panthers struck first, but the injured and depleted Panthers did not even go on to win that game, nevermind the series. The Golden Knights won their first Stanley Cup in franchise history.

The team who opened the scoring did not win the Stanley Cup.

2024

The Panthers made their return in the fight for the Stanley Cup the following year, this time against the Oilers. They opened the scoring once again, this time with a goal from Carter Verhage, and won their first Stanley Cup in franchise history.

The team who opened the scoring won the Stanley Cup.

2025

The 2025 Stanley Cup Final was set to be an intense rematch between the Oilers and the Panthers. Draisaitl scored first, but the Panthers won the Stanley Cup back-to-back.

The team who opened the scoring did not win the Stanley Cup.

Opening Goal Pattern

The pattern this has created is a yes-yes-no-yes-no, with yes meaning the opening scorer went on to win the Stanley Cup, and no meaning the opening scorer did not go on to win the Stanley Cup. This has been cycled through twice from the 2016 Stanley Cup winner to the 2025 Stanley Cup winner. 

2016-17 saw the Penguins open the scoring and win the cup - yes, yes. 2018 the Golden Knights opened it only for the Capitals to win - no. Then the Blues struck first and won - yes. Followed by the Stars opening it, but losing to the Lightning - no.

The pattern then started again with the Lightning's second win in their back-to-back campaign - yes. The Avalanche opened the scoring and won the next year for the second - yes. Following that the Panthers opened the scoring but lost - no. The next year the Panthers opened it and won - yes.

That brings us to the latest Stanley Cup matchup: the 2025 re-match between the Oilers and Panthers. Draisaitl opened it, but the Panthers finished it - no. The Panthers win was inevitable based on this pattern and the second cycle has officially been completed.

Looking only at the opening goals, after Draisaitl opened the scoring for the Oilers, the series was won for the Panthers. 

Therefore, the opening goal does seem to matter, but not in the sense that if you score first you will win the Stanley Cup. Sometimes striking first can work against you, such as in the Oilers case this year.

Next year, it is on a yes, whoever scores first might be the predictor of who wins the coveted trophy.

Back-to-Back Winners

Remember the back-to-back patterns and how I said they also have an interesting pattern to them? Well, let’s look at it now!

Essentially, there is another pattern going on, where a team will win the Stanley Cup in back-to-back years, then the next two years, two different teams will win the Stanley Cup before another team wins back-to-back and so on.

2016-17 saw repeat Stanley Cup winners. A break was then taken in 2018-19 where two different teams each won the Stanley Cup. After that, in 2020-21 we saw back-to-back winners again before another two years in 2022-23 where two different winners were crowned. 

The Panthers have just won back-to-back Stanley Cups, falling in perfect alignment of the pattern. Based strictly off of this, the moment they made it to the Stanley Cup Finals, it was their series to lose (and once Draisaitl scored, they were golden).

With the back-to-back pattern being continued by the Panthers, it is time to see two different champions crowned in the upcoming Stanley Cup Finals.